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The 2018 Aussie Skan is here

Building competitive mixed ATP-WTA teams for the Grand Slams
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Ace2Ace
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Post by Ace2Ace » Jan Tue 23, 2018 2:49 pm

My worse Skan ever... I want to erase it from memory.
Hello French Open !!! :)

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Post by PeterSkan » Jan Wed 24, 2018 10:19 am

The Quarters are a done deal. Highlights ....

*Four teams of 91 contestants have four players left. The contestants are JeMa [1st place with 1873 points], Spvxv0 [2nd place with 1807 points], Borenore 2 [3rd place with 1804 points] and Laughing Cavalier [4th place with 1797 points]. Awesome!

*Laughing Cavalier still has all three of his WTA players left [Kerber Wozniacki Halep]. Impressive

*JeMa leads on the strength of Domination points, the only contestant with Kerber as the #1 seed.

*Kerber is the only player to have gained over 500 points for any contestant so far [517 points to JeMa].

*JeMa leads Domination [906]; the other 3 lead Victory [930], and Borenore2 leads Quality 999]

*the points range by tier are:

1. [top 10]: "Nothing Can Stop Us Now": from 1873 to 1691
2. [next 27]: "Stop & Go": from 1687 to 1405
3. [next 27]: "Stopped Up": from 1387 down to 1092
4. [bottom 27]: "Full Stop": from 1089 to RandomSkan's 198
go firmly to the window
and listen with deep emotion,
but not with the whining, the pleas of the coward;
listen-your final pleasure-to the voices,
to the exquisite music of that strange procession

PeterSkan
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Post by PeterSkan » Jan Wed 24, 2018 10:20 am

Kerber as 1st Seed is the smartest pick so far. Of course, we'll see how that holds up pretty soon.
go firmly to the window
and listen with deep emotion,
but not with the whining, the pleas of the coward;
listen-your final pleasure-to the voices,
to the exquisite music of that strange procession

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Post by Graveller » Jan Wed 24, 2018 3:02 pm

<font color=brown>@ <b>PeterSkan</b>:</font>
 
I consider the selection of Cilic as the smartest move with regard to the end victory.

I hope to stay n Tier2 (despite losing Pouille in R1) I still have a solid chance of having both WTA finalists (Kerber, Woz) + Federer.

LaughCav had a nice team (his most balanced ever); those three ATP picks (Nadal, Novak, Federer) crossed my mind too, but I never believed that they would all get in the final stages. OK, I was right, but he takes full advantage of the fact that two ATP finalists were not picked by anyone, and Cilic only by three.
Dimitrov, Kyrgios, Zverev and Goffin did kill off many teams.
Last edited by Graveller on Jan Wed 24, 2018 3:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by Graveller » Jan Wed 24, 2018 3:24 pm

And although a wn by LCav would have been deserved, I do not think that it is possible.
Jema -the leader- has Cilic but not Halep All other three in the top 4 have Halep (and Kerber and Wozniacki).

So assuming that Cilic gets into the final, then Halep has to win the slam for the three others in order to close the gap. And due to the positions af the three ladies in their team, Borenore would have a net win (positive points for Halep and negative for Kerber losing in the SF) that is bigger than that of LCav (as the distance between a Halep and Kerber is bigger for borenore). Federer is for both in the same position so that is a status quo.

In a final between Halep and woz, the distance between both players is the same for Borenore and LCav, so no difference can be made.
If Mertens reaches the final, Borenore will lose a bit more points on Caro in the Semi, but will win more points in the final with Halep as she is his #1 in his team.

If Mertens wins it, then no one can close the Gap with Jema (assuming that Cilic reaches the final),

The hardest to assess by looking at the teams is an Edmund vs Federer Final, and a Mertens vs Kerber final...
"Never argue with an idiot - they take you down to their level and then beat you on experience"

"Don't wrestle with a pig: you both get dirty, but the pig actually likes it"

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Post by PeterSkan » Jan Wed 24, 2018 3:27 pm

@ Graveller -

Splendid analysis. Enough to make my head spin, as the SKAN rightfully should.
go firmly to the window
and listen with deep emotion,
but not with the whining, the pleas of the coward;
listen-your final pleasure-to the voices,
to the exquisite music of that strange procession

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Post by Graveller » Jan Wed 24, 2018 3:40 pm

ok, pretty sure it is most likely between JeMa and Borenore

spvxv is #2 but needs to make up on JeMa with a Halep (as JeMa also has a Kerber, Woz and Federer). But due to the position of Halep in Spvxv’team at #6 - ie below Kerber and Woz - the victories of Halep against those two will be less beneficial compared to Borenore where a Halep is #1... and a Borenore only trails by 3 points.

If Cilic wins the Final: JeMa wins
If Cilic reaches the Final: JeMa wins unless Halep wins; in that case, Borenore will win
If Cilic loses in the SF: JeMa wins if Kerber reaches the final.
If Cilic loses in the SF and Halep loses the final vs Woz: Borenore

Now looking at a Cilic loss in the SF and a Mertens win vs Halep in the final:
It all depends on the size of the wins of Mertens vs Woz and Halep AND the size of the win of Halep vs Kerber

A big win of Mertens vs Woz will be worst for Spvx and least for LCav. At the same time, the Halep win vs Kerber will benefit Borenore the most.
But in the Final. Borenore will suffer the most from a Halep-loss, and Spvxv the least. On top of that, Spvxv will benefit the most from each Federer in (zing Sf and F), but would suffer more from a Fed-loss too
And the bigger each of these wis, the more impact.
Last edited by Graveller on Jan Wed 24, 2018 4:00 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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"Don't wrestle with a pig: you both get dirty, but the pig actually likes it"

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Post by Graveller » Jan Wed 24, 2018 3:53 pm

So I guess Cilic losing in the SF and Mertens winning vs Halep would make it a three-horse race to the finish between Spvxv, Borenore and LCav...

So if LCav winS this Skan, it means that Mertens won the Slam.I can live with that &#128514;
Last edited by Graveller on Jan Wed 24, 2018 3:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Never argue with an idiot - they take you down to their level and then beat you on experience"

"Don't wrestle with a pig: you both get dirty, but the pig actually likes it"

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Post by Graveller » Jan Wed 24, 2018 4:02 pm

<font color=brown>@ <b>PeterSkan</b>:</font>
 
I love these kind of analyses of the Skan teams in the SF stage...

It really shows the importance of the place of each player in your team when the differences are small
Last edited by Graveller on Jan Wed 24, 2018 4:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Never argue with an idiot - they take you down to their level and then beat you on experience"

"Don't wrestle with a pig: you both get dirty, but the pig actually likes it"

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Post by Graveller » Jan Thu 25, 2018 3:13 am

Spvxv is still alive because Halep managed to win with the smallest difference (skan-points-wise), so he limited the damage with regard to Borenore.

But he needs two big Federer wins and a small Halep win (or if Woz wins the final, then Cilic needs to lose today).

Sorry, LCav, but no win for you: You cannot make up any points on Borenore anymore.
"Never argue with an idiot - they take you down to their level and then beat you on experience"

"Don't wrestle with a pig: you both get dirty, but the pig actually likes it"

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